AI Rewrites the Rules of Power Resilience

The newly released 2024 edition of Berkeley Lab’s Utility-Scale Solar report presents analysis of empirical plant-level data from the U.S. fleet of ground-mounted photovoltaic (PV), PV+battery, and concentrating solar-thermal power (CSP) plants with capacities exceeding 5 MWAC. The report explores trends in deployment, technology, capital and operating costs, capacity factors, levelized cost of solar energy (LCOE), power purchase agreement (PPA) prices, wholesale electricity market value, and interconnection queues.

The full report, published in slide-deck format, is accompanied by a narrative executive summary, interactive data visualizations, and a public data file, all available on the project page. The authors will host a free webinar summarizing key findings from the report on Tuesday, October 29, 2024, at 10:00 AM PT/1:00 PM ET. Please register for the webinar here: https://lbnl.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_yArpXdN8RaiDskswaVErAQ

The following are a few key findings from the latest edition of the report.

2023 was a record year for utility-scale PV deployment, and the market is becoming increasingly national in scope. 2023’s addition of 18.5 GWAC brought cumulative installed capacity to 80.2 GW_AC across 47 states (see map below). ERCOT in Texas added the most new capacity in 2023 (4.2 GW_AC), followed by the non-ISO Southeast (3.1 GW_AC), PJM (2.8 GW_AC), CAISO in California (2.7 GW_AC), MISO (2.7 GW_AC), and the non-ISO West (2.5 GW_AC).

Installed costs continued to fall in 2023. Relative to 2022, capacity-weighted averages decreased by 8% to $1.43/WAC (or $1.08/WDC). Costs, based on a 7.1 GWAC sample of 76 plants completed in 2023, have fallen by 75% (averaging 10% annually) since 2010.

Plant-level capacity factors vary widely, from 7% to 35% (on an AC basis), with a sample median of 24%. The high degree of plant-level variation is driven by many factors, including solar insolation, tracking vs. fixed-tilt mounts, inverter loading ratios, and curtailment. Newer projects show less performance degradation as they age (0.9%/year) compared to older plants (1.47%/year).

Utility-scale PV’s levelized cost of energy (LCOE) increased slightly to $46/MWh prior to the application of tax credits but continued to fall to $31/MWh when accounting for federal incentives. For most new solar projects, the Production Tax Credit appears more beneficial than the longstanding Investment Tax Credit. Since 2016, Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) prices have closely tracked calculated post-incentive LCOE, suggesting pass through of the credits to purchasers and a competitive PPA market.

Newly signed longer-term PPA prices have increased since 2021, to an average of $35/MWh (levelized, in 2023 dollars). PPA prices have largely followed the decline in solar’s LCOE over time, but since 2019 have stagnated and even increased among new contracts. (The graph below is by PPA execution year, whereas the graph above is by the year in which a project started operation.) Data from LevelTen Energy and Trio on shorter-term PPAs involving primarily non-utility buyers show an even stronger rise, to $45-$52/MWh.

Solar’s average energy and capacity value (i.e., ability to offset costs of other power generation sources) across the U.S. was $45/MWh in 2023. After high natural gas prices in 2022, solar’s energy value returned to more normal levels of $34/MWh in 2023. Capacity value is greater in the non-ISO regions and can add $30-40/MWh in some Balancing Areas. Solar’s average market value was lowest in CAISO ($27/MWh), the market with the greatest solar generation share, and highest in ERCOT ($67/MWh), driven by summer heat waves and record demand for electricity during solar production hours.

Newer solar projects had greater market value in 2023 than their generation costs, yielding $1.1 billion in benefits. Energy and capacity market value has been greater than levelized generation costs (after tax-credits) for new solar projects since 2020. Projects built in 2022 delivered on average $15/MWh more value than their costs in 2023.

Solar’s combined value from wholesale electricity markets, public health and climate damage reduction were greater than generation costs and incentives, yielding $13.7 billion in net benefits in 2023. Solar offsets fossil generation, reducing health and climate damages. Using avoided emission-rates and damages from the scientific literature and air quality models we estimate U.S. health benefits of $24/MWh and reduced global climate damages of $101/MWh. 

Deployment of PV+battery hybrid plants set a record with 5.3 GW installed in 2023.Adding battery storage to shift a portion of excess mid-day solar generation into the evening hours is one way to increase the value of solar. PV+battery hybrid projects are becoming increasingly common, particularly in markets with a higher share of solar generation. In 2023, 52 PV+battery hybrid plants totaling 5.3 GWAC of PV and 3.0 GW / 10.5 GWh of battery storage achieved commercial operations, either as newly built hybrids or storage retrofits to existing solar projects. Most of the new storage capacity was built in CAISO and the non-ISO West.

A massive pipeline of more than 1 terawatt of utility-scale solar plants dominates the interconnection queues across the country. Looking ahead, at least 1,085 GW of solar capacity was in the nation’s interconnection queues at the end of 2023. Nearly 571 GW, or 53%, of that total was paired with a battery – in CAISO it was a staggering 98%. Historically only 10% of the requested solar capacity is built, as companies may submit exploratory interconnection requests or may face high interconnection costs or other development challenges.

The full report, published in slide-deck format, is accompanied by a narrative executive summary, interactive data visualizations, and a public data file, all available on the project page.

Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory | emp.lbl.gov

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Solar Energy Technologies Office (SETO) opened the American-Made Promoting Registration of Inverters and Modules with Ecolabel (PRIME) Prize, a $2.7 million competition that promotes ecolabel registration to standardize and improve domestic inverter and solar photovoltaic (PV) module sustainability.

The PRIME Prize seeks to increase registration of solar modules and inverters through the EPEAT ecolabel. EPEAT is an ecolabel operated and maintained by the Global Electronics Council for certain electronic products, including solar PV modules and inverters. The prize aims to help manufacturers meet the criteria for EPEAT product standards and make their products more attractive to purchasers with sustainability goals.

The PRIME Prize is open to U.S.-based manufacturing organizations that produce solar PV modules or inverters. Eligible applicants must not have any PV modules or inverters already registered with EPEAT.

The prize consists of two phases, spanning two and a half years. Each competitor can win up to $450,000 of the $2.7 million cash prize pool.

To learn more, sign up to attend an informational webinar on October 30 at 12 p.m. ET. Register to compete by April 17, 2025.

DOE’s Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy | energy.gov/eere

Central Coast Community Energy (3CE), Clean Power Alliance (CPA), Peninsula Clean Energy (PCE) and Silicon Valley Clean Energy (SVCE) celebrated with project developer and owner Clearway Energy Group (“Clearway”) at a ribbon cutting event to commemorate the Arica and Victory Pass solar and storage projects. The celebration took place at the complex site in Riverside County, CA and included remarks from Congressman Dr. Raul Ruiz, and the Deputy Executive Director for Energy and Climate Policy for the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) Leuwam Tesfai.

Arica and Victory Pass projects came online in stages from March through June 2024 and have a combined capacity of 463 megawatts (MW) solar and 186 MW battery storage, enough electricity to power 205,000 homes. In total, the Community Choice Aggregators (CCAs) are contracted for 393.5 MW solar capacity and 171 MW (684 MWh) battery storage over 15-year agreements.

“To achieve the California’s clean energy goals, the CPUC ordered load serving entities like Central Coast Community Energy and Peninsula Clean Energy to bring online over 18,000 megawatts of new, clean resources by 2028. Projects such as the Arica and Victory Pass solar and storage project exemplify this work toward California’s ambitious carbon reduction goals,” said CPUC Deputy Executive Director Tesfai.

The renewable electricity generated by the Arica and Victory Pass projects contribute towards the CCAs’ renewable portfolio standards. The battery storage provides clean capacity to help meet resource adequacy requirements set by the
CPUC, and supports the state-wide effort to invest in resilient, clean energy solutions. The Arica and Victory Pass projects represent a $1 billion investment in Riverside County and will contribute $5.9 million in annual economic benefits. During construction, the projects created 1,000 union jobs.

“California has set necessary and aggressive clean energy targets,” said California Community Choice Association (CalCCA) Chief Executive Officer Beth Vaughan. “The Arica and Victory Pass solar and storage projects are a prime example of how CCAs are leading the charge on supporting the development of the renewable energy capacity to get us there.”

To date, CCAs in California have contracted for over 14,000 MW of new, clean capacity, representing $25 billion in signed contracts.

CCA | www.cal-cca.org/cca-impact/

Central Coast Community Energy | https://3cenergy.org/

Baltic RCC, a Regional Coordination Center (RCC) responsible for ensuring electricity network security and operational efficiency across the Baltic region, faced significant challenges in managing the complexities of Europe’s evolving grid. With the rise of renewable energy sources and the increasing need for cross-border cooperation, Baltic RCC sought to improve grid stability, streamline network model management, and ensure compliance with EU regulations (EU 2019/943).

Instead of relying on proprietary solutions that could create vendor lock-in and long-term dependencies, Baltic RCC chose to build an open source, community-driven solution. Key to this approach was leveraging components from the LF Energy PowSyBl project, an open source initiative designed to facilitate grid modeling, simulations, and analysis. 

Challenge

As Europe’s electricity grid evolved toward a more interconnected, decentralized model, several critical challenges emerged for Baltic RCC:

1. Complex Network Modeling: With each Transmission System Operator (TSO) in Europe having developed independent network models, merging these into a unified Pan-European model was a complex and resource-intensive process. Ensuring grid security and conducting “what-if” scenarios required comprehensive and accurate network models.
2. Compliance with EU Regulations: Under the EU 2019/943 regulation, RCCs are required to provide a Pan-European network model for assessing grid stability and ensuring the system can handle potential outages without cascading failures.
3. Avoiding Vendor Lock-In: Traditional software providers in the energy industry often offer proprietary solutions with high licensing costs and long-term dependencies. Baltic RCC wanted to avoid these risks and maintain control over the development and evolution of its tools.
4. Lack of Expertise in Some Domains: Baltic RCC initially lacked internal DevOps expertise needed to build and maintain such a complex system in-house, posing a challenge for the development of their custom solution.

Solution

To overcome these challenges, Baltic RCC opted for an open source approach, partnering with LF Energy and utilizing components of the PowSyBl (Power System Blocks) project, particularly PyPowSyBl for network modeling and load flow calculations.

The key aspects of the solution included:

1. Use of PyPowSyBl for CGMES File Import and Load Flow Calculations: Baltic RCC incorporated the PyPowSyBl library to manage Common Grid Model Exchange Standard (CGMES) files, a format critical for exchanging and merging network models across TSOs. PyPowSyBl also facilitated performing load flow calculations, a core function needed for assessing grid stability and maximum allowed energy flows.
2. Modular Architecture with Open Source Tools: Baltic RCC divided the European Merging Function (EMF) into several logical functional components:
   • Data Exchange: Managed through OPDE (Operational Planning Data Environment) and RabbitMQ for reliable message brokering.
   • Data Storage: Implemented using Minio, an open source S3-compatible object storage platform.
   • Visualization: Built using Kibana, an open source platform for monitoring and visualizing the entire process.
3. Collaboration with RTE International: Baltic RCC partnered with RTE International, leveraging their expertise and open source tools from PowSyBl, which have been extensively used in grid load flow analysis for years. This collaboration allowed Baltic RCC to access proven, well-maintained tools without being locked into proprietary ecosystems.
4. Community-Driven Development: Instead of outsourcing the entire solution to a third-party vendor, Baltic RCC took on the role of both developer and provider. By creating an open source community around the project, they were able to attract additional expertise and support from other RCCs and interested stakeholders.

Results

Baltic RCC successfully developed an open source solution for managing and merging network models, overcoming the challenges of complexity, compliance, and vendor lock-in. Key outcomes included:

1. Operational Pan-European Network Model: Using PyPowSyBl’s capabilities, Baltic RCC was able to create a working Pan-European network model that complies with EU regulations and supports grid stability analysis. The solution allows for detailed “what-if” analyses and ensures that any single outage does not cause cascading failures across the grid.
2. Avoidance of Vendor Lock-In: By choosing open source components, Baltic RCC avoided the risks of becoming dependent on a single vendor’s tools or licensing models. They retained full control over the development and customization of their solution.
3. Foundation for Future Development:  By choosing open source components, Baltic RCC avoided the risks of becoming dependent on a single vendor’s tools or licensing models. The open source nature of the project means new features and improvements can be developed in collaboration with the wider community.
4. Community Engagement and Growth: While building the open source community has been challenging, especially given industry prejudices regarding security and compliance, Baltic RCC continues to engage with other RCCs and solution providers. The more advanced and stable the solution becomes, the more interest and contributions are expected from the broader energy sector.

Conclusion

Baltic RCC’s open source approach, including leveraging LF Energy’s PowSyBl components such as PyPowSyBl for CGMES file management and load flow calculations, has proven to be an effective strategy for addressing the complex challenges of the energy transition. By avoiding vendor lock-in and fostering community collaboration, Baltic RCC has developed a scalable and compliant solution that provides long-term value for the Pan-European energy grid.

LF Energy | linuxfoundation.org

A recently released report from Quantum Energy details the expected local and regional annual environmental, health and economic benefits of the Vista Sands Solar project (“Vista Sands”), a proposed 1.3-gigawatt photovoltaic and 300-megawatt battery energy storage project in Portage County, if approved by the Public Service Commission of Wisconsin. The report, commissioned by the project’s developer, Doral Renewables, and filed as part of its Certificate of Public Convenience and Necessity application for project approval, evaluates the potential grid-level reductions in emissions to air, soil and water as well as the corresponding public health, ecosystem and economic impacts if Vista Sands’ full project capacity is brought onto the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) grid.

Vista Sands represents a significant opportunity for the state of Wisconsin to achieve its net-zero carbon emissions goal by 2050 while also delivering cost-efficient, reliable, and environmentally responsible electricity. If approved, the project would be the largest of its kind in Wisconsin, generating enough clean power to energize approximately 200,000 average Wisconsin homes. With no fuel costs, the electricity from solar farms can also be sold at a fixed price over 30 years, avoiding the price fluctuations often found with fossil fuels. 

The report from Quantum Energy, a data science and analytics firm funded by the National Science Foundation, utilizes a new impact quantification tool: The TotalView Energy Platform. The tool provides novel and comprehensive insights into grid mix changes and resulting net impacts caused by a new project within an electricity service area by simulating hourly grid-level changes in energy generation and air pollutant emissions, validated against data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The TotalView analysis of Vista Sands’ 1.3-gigawatt solar project demonstrates that the project is expected to achieve improved public health outcomes, enhanced ecosystem quality and biodiversity, and substantial economic gains in the project’s first year of operation.

According to the report, in its first year of operation, Vista Sands would avoid 1,624,113 metric tons of carbon dioxide and 1,129 metric tons of particulate matter being released into the air –equivalent to the annual emissions from over 353,000 vehicles.

Clean power produced by Vista Sands would result in approximately 1,216 gigawatt hours (GWh) less natural gas generation and 950 GWh less coal generation on the MISO regional grid, while adding 2,296 GWh of clean electricity – meaning 94% of the electricity generated by Vista Sands would displace polluting fossil fuel generation. 

The analysis also projects that Vista Sands would avert 3,260 metric tons of soil acidification emissions, along with a significant decrease in other air, land, and water pollutants. Using the leading life cycle assessment metric of Potentially Disappeared Fraction of Species, the report from Quantum Energy projects that Vista Sands would save the equivalent of over five species due to overall emissions avoidance in year one of operations. These soil benefits are in addition to those resulting from Vista Sands’ proposed vegetation management plan.  

Vice President of Development for Doral Renewables and VistaSands Solar Project Manager Jon Baker said, “Vista Sands will mark a significant and immediate step toward mitigating the threat of a shifting climate in Wisconsin and nationwide by decreasing reliance on traditional energy sources like coal and natural gas. This meaningfully reduces the amount of harmful pollutants in our air, water and soil that impact human health.”

The reductions in global and local pollutants that would be realized from Vista Sands are estimated to save 2,485 disability-adjusted life years – or the equivalent of 1,000 people receiving an extra 2.5 years of healthy life with their families. The combined public health and ecosystem benefits are projected to produce approximately $630 million in economic gains in the first year, primarily attributed to the reduction in healthcare costs and ecosystem preservation services.

Quantum Energy CEO and Co-founder Daniel Howard, Ph.D. said,“The Vista Sands Solar project is poised to reduce a substantial amount of emissions, reducing the amount of particulates, cancerous and non-cancerous chemicals and compounds ending up in our lungs, soil and water supply. In a state like Wisconsin where a large portion of electricity comes from burning fossil fuels, the net benefits of a project like Vista Sands Solar stand to significantly improve the health of communities, ecosystems and the economy.” 

In addition to the data released by Quantum Energy, Strategic Economic Research’s economic impact report for Vista Sands estimates that the project would be a major jobs generator in the region, adding approximately 500 jobs during the construction phase and about 50 permanent jobs thereafter. The project would contribute significantly to the regional economy through capital investments totaling over $1 billion in the first year and approximately $6.5 million more in annual utility aid paid to county and municipal governments.

Vista Sands Solar | vistasandssolar.com

Metis Engineering, a leader in battery safety and monitoring innovations, proudly announces the launch of its latest breakthrough: Cell Guard with Hydrogen. This new sensor, a sophisticated evolution of the original Cell Guard, is expertly engineered to detect hydrogen (H₂) in energy storage systems, offering essential safety enhancements for hydrogen-based applications and battery packs alike.

Why is Hydrogen Dangerous? In air hydrogen has a wide flammability limit from 4 to 77% by volume and an explosive limit from 18 to 59%. The activation energy for ignition is extremely low and can be triggered by a very small spark or static discharge. Hydrogen is an odourless, colourless gas and can go undetected without specialised technology.

Early detection of hydrogen leaks is critical to maintaining safety across the hydrogen lifecycle—from production to storage, transport, usage in fuel cells and H2 ICE. With applications spanning transport, marine, aviation, and industrial sectors, Metis Engineering’s new sensor meets this critical need, creating new benchmarks for safety in hydrogen technologies.

The latest hydrogen detection sensor addresses key safety needs with innovative, high-performance features, advancing on the foundation of the original Cell Guard sensor:

1. Reliable Hydrogen Storage Leak Detection: This sensor offers unparalleled accuracy in identifying even trace hydrogen leaks, ensuring compliance with the strictest safety standards and protecting against fire or explosion risks in hydrogen storage systems.
2. Electrolysis Detection in Fuel Cells and Battery Packs: moisture ingress can lead to electrolysis, producing dangerous gases. Metis Engineering’s sensor detects early signs of hydrogen generation.
3. Enhanced Detection in High-VOC Environments: Cell Guard with Hydrogen excels in environments with high volatile organic compound (VOC) levels. For example, where large amounts of adhesive have been used in the construction of an Energy Storage System, ambient levels of VOC can remain very high; this sensor can still detect thermal runaway.
4. Wider Temperature Range Compatibility: With an expanded operational range of -40°C to +85°C (-40°F to +185°F), this sensor is built for extreme conditions, where other sensors may underperform, making it ideal for diverse, demanding environments.
5. Ultra-Low Power Consumption: Operating in low power mode, Cell Guard with Hydrogen ensures continuous monitoring with little energy drain (<1mA). On detection of a level that matches a preconfigured threshold Cell Guard with Hydrogen will wake the CAN interface and toggle a Low Side Drive pin, providing power efficient detection of hydrogen leaks and water ingress.
6. Instantaneous Measurement Upon Startup: The sensor delivers immediate hydrogen measurements without the need for warm-up, ensuring real-time safety monitoring from power-up.
7. Wide Accurate Detection Range of 0% to 20% H₂: The sensor measures hydrogen with precision across a wide range, offering dependable data in variable conditions.

"We’re excited to introduce this advanced sensor, addressing critical safety concerns in hydrogen storage and battery management systems," said Joe Holdsworth, CEO of Metis Engineering. "Our aim is to equip customers with forward-thinking solutions that elevate safety and enhance the resilience of their energy storage infrastructure."

The new hydrogen leak detection sensor is now open for pre-orders, with deliveries from 15^th October 2024.

Metis Engineering | metisengineering.com

Miros, the top name in real-time ocean insights for maritime operations, has successfully obtained ISO 27001, the world's leading standard for information security management systems (ISMS). 

A major milestone in the company’s mission to set the highest standards for information protection, this internationally recognized certification sets out guidance for establishing, implementing, maintaining and continually improving processes with regards to information security.  

Conformity with ISO 27001 demonstrates that Miros has implemented a robust, risk-based approach to managing a wide variety of processes related to the handling of data, products, equipment, and the infrastructure managed by the company. 

It also ensures that the company’s processes adhere to the best practices and principles included in the standard, covering how it engages with customers, suppliers, partners and employees. 

Gunnar Prytz, Chief Technology Officer at Miros, said: “With new threats constantly emerging and ever greater focus being given to cybersecurity, our customers and suppliers increasingly want evidence of what we do to ensure their information is handled securely and kept safe. ISO 27001 is just that, reaffirming our dedication to safeguarding data.  

“This standard is also a requirement in some situations and gives Miros a competitive advantage, demonstrating our ongoing commitment to ensuring the highest standard of data management and integrity.” 

As a service company, the standard also covers how Miros handles its equipment located offshore on vessels, platforms and wind farms.  

Miros has spent the last year working towards acquiring ISO 27001, which builds on the already secured ISO 9001, an international standard that outlines the requirements for a Quality Management System (QMS). 

Mr Prytz added: “The benefits of ISO 27001 aren’t just confined to our customers; it is also incredibly useful for Miros as a business in defining and fine tuning our internal processes.  

“For example, this standard requires us to make sure our employees are always updated when it comes to information security, threats and best practices. It’s all about awareness and giving us a 360-degree view on security, both internal and external. 

“This certification is not just a compliance checkmark but a part of our broader strategy to continually enhance our security posture, and I would like to thank the Miros team for their part in obtaining this standard." 

Moving forward, the company will use ISO 27001, which is reassessed every year, in its everyday operations, monitoring and adapting its operations to ensure they adhere to best practice.  

In the unlikely event that a serious security incident does occur, the standard also makes sure that clear processes are in place for determining how best to respond. 

Miros Group | https://www.miros-group.com/