New Global Offshore Wind Report Extends Official Outlook to 2035

TGS, the leading global provider of energy data and intelligence, has extended its global outlook for offshore wind to 2035, offering long-term insights as the offshore wind industry navigates an evolving landscape. Published exclusively to members of the 4C Offshore Premium market intelligence subscription, the Q4 2024 Global Market Overview Report provides a forward-looking analysis that covers forecasts, recent market developments and next steps across more than 30 markets worldwide.

Notable achievements and significant transitions have marked the past 12 months. During 2024, the offshore wind energy sector set new records for permitting and securing offtake contracts, underscoring its resilience and adaptability. Building on this momentum, 2025 is positioned to set new milestones, with even higher levels of capacity expected to reach financial close and be secured under offtake agreements.

The fourth-quarter 2024 report highlights how 2024's consequential elections and auctions have catalyzed significant changes, with government support gradually catching up to industry cost pressures. Governments globally aimed to lease about 72 gigawatts of new sites this year, with 65.2 gigawatts awarded. However, only 16.6 gigawatts of approximately 30 gigawatts of targeted offtake capacity was secured. While recent auctions have seen mixed success — particularly in Denmark, where an auction received no bids — global growth prospects remain promising.

New global key forecasts show that 410 gigawatts of offshore wind projects will start construction by the end of 2035, with the Asia-Pacific market share set to expand significantly, from 7% today to about 16%. Retaining its leadership position, Europe’s share is expected to grow from 44% now to 49% by 2035, leveraging its long development experience to weather supply chain disruptions. Additionally, China’s role remains dominant, with 26% of global capacity starting offshore construction by the middle of the next decade.

With this longer-term vision, the U.K. and U.S. are predicted to be outside the top three markets globally — a consequence of supply chain and policy uncertainty. By contrast, emerging markets outside the top 10 are projected to hold more than 17% of global offshore wind capacity by 2035, a significant increase from 1.1% today. In the fourth quarter of 2024, Romania and Turkey each published an offshore wind roadmap, Canada took a crucial legislative step with Bill C-49, and Brazil and Colombia advanced their regulatory frameworks. This rapid evolution signals a more diverse and geographically dispersed market that extends well beyond traditional industry hubs.

Overall, developments in 2024 provide a clear direction for the industry’s longer-term trajectory. Governments are raising strike prices, developers are refining strategies to manage risks, and the global market is evolving into a more diverse, geographically dispersed ecosystem. The result is a comprehensive view of an industry at a pivotal juncture, poised to adapt and grow as it heads toward 2035.

Jamie Bernthal-Hooker, research team lead for 4C Offshore market intelligence at TGS, commented: “Recent news from around the world, such as Brazil progressing its regulatory framework, shows that offshore wind still has momentum, even in emerging markets, despite hurdles and uncertainties in the global market. Our forecast reflects an industry that has faced several challenges but with rapid and significant advancements to look forward to in the short and long terms.”

The Q4 2024 Market Overview Report is available for subscribers to 4C Offshore market intelligence. For more information or to request a copy, visit 4COffshore.com.

TGS releases regular intelligence reports on a variety of offshore energy topics powered by 4C Offshore market intelligence. They also provide independent, expert cable consultancy services for offshore projects, including offshore wind, subsea power cables, telecommunications, and pipelines.

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